Published Papers

Highlights

• Evaluating energy poverty across a sample of 32 economies from 2004 to 2021.
• Data from the EU-SILC database and Eurostat were utilised.
• Fixed-effect regression models were used to identify factors influencing energy poverty at the household level.
• Strategies for addressing energy poverty include enhancing housing conditions and lowering electricity expenses.
• Households that are low-income, smaller in size, and in poor condition are more vulnerable to energy poverty.

Due to the increasing importance of natural gas for modern economic activity, and gas's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future natural gas production while considering uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth,production growth and other factors that might limit production. Inthisstudy, we develop future scenarios for natural gas supply using the ACEGES computational laboratory. Conditionally on the currently estimated ultimate recover-able resources, the 'Collective View' and 'Golden Age' Scenarios suggest that the supply of natural gas is likely to meet the increasing demand for natural gas until at least 2035. The 'Golden Age' Scenario suggests significant 'jumps' of natural gas production - important for testing the resilience of long-term strategies.

The chapter presents a new approach to address energy policy and security based upon the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model and the SPT (stochastic portfolio theory).

The ACEGES model is an agent-based model for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments. The ACEGES model is designed to be the foundation for large custom-purpose simulations of the global energy system by modeling explicitly 216 countries.

As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products.

Introduction

We all know that the wind is intermittent. As a rough measure, wind turbines can only operate when
wind speeds are between 4 metres per second and 24 metres per second. There is a further technical limit,
which need not concern us here, Betz's Law - the maximum theoretical efficiency of a wind turbine is
the ratio of the maximum power obtained from the wind to the total power available from the wind. This
ratio is 0.593, thus under Betz's Law wind turbines can never be more than 59.3% efficient.
Here, however, we focus on 'capacity factor' (sometimes termed 'load factor'). This is the ratio of the
actual output of a wind energy development (an array of wind turbines at a particular location, or locations
if a country is under consideration as is the case in this paper) to the installed capacity. We will be
considering actual wind energy performance in the UK, sub-divided for England, Scotland, Wales, and
Northern Ireland against claims that in general have been grossly exaggerated. The implications of the
actual performance against claims will finally be considered.