Published Papers

Highlights

• Evaluating energy poverty across a sample of 32 economies from 2004 to 2021.
• Data from the EU-SILC database and Eurostat were utilised.
• Fixed-effect regression models were used to identify factors influencing energy poverty at the household level.
• Strategies for addressing energy poverty include enhancing housing conditions and lowering electricity expenses.
• Households that are low-income, smaller in size, and in poor condition are more vulnerable to energy poverty.

Introduction

1. This evidence is presented to the Select Committee to provide a perspective in terms of the threats, vulnerability and consequences of the UK Energy Supply System within a global-national context characterized by unprecedented uncertainties and increasingly complex intertwines. This contribution is based upon the ACEGES project (www.aceges.org). ACEGES stands for Agent-based Computational  Economics of the Global Energy  System. The ACEGES models the energy demand and supply of 216 countries.

2. The aim is not to present another set of quantifications for policymaking, as there are a number of reports and papers published in recent years. Rather the aim is to provide a coherent overview of i) the assumptions of the energy models used to produce the published quantifications and ii) the approach used to develop energy scenarios for the assessment of the UK's Energy Supply.

3. I am a specialist in the modelling of fuzzy phenomena and complex adaptive systems such as the Energy System. My research work aims to support evidence-based energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments. Currently, I am the Deputy Director of the Centre for International Business and Sustainability (CIBS) at the London Metropolitan Business School. I am also the organise of the "UK Energy Day: Sustainable Supply" which is part of the European network of events led by the Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) agency of the European Commission (EC).

4. It is evident today that the long-term sustainability of the UK's energy system is under acute strain. Therefore the comments that follow mainly deal with the need to enhance:

a. The existing energy models to assess the sensitivity of the UK's energy supply.

b. The way of developing multidimensional global-national continuous scenarios for long-term assessment of the resilient of the UK energy system to international events.

I will start with the latter.

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