EMC Working Papers

Could the crisis in Ukraine threaten the security of Europe's energy supply?

The European Union imports significant quantities of oil and gas from Russia. The EU also imports oil and gas from the Central Asian republics, in particular Kazakhstan (oil) and Turkmenistan (gas), which also come via Russia.

Russia supplies 27% of the EU's gas (125 Gm³ in 2013) and 32% of its oil (4.2 million barrels/day). No other source in the world can replace it in the short term. Russia exports 56% of its oil and 84% of its gas to the EU. No other market in the world can replace such a loyal customer in the near future, despite recent efforts by Russia to diversify into Asia. Not to mention other commercial trade, inward and outward investment and financial commitments.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of hydrocarbons, both oil and gas, with 7.5 million barrels/day and 230 Gm^3/year respectively. Gas exports generate income for the country of some €54.6 billion a year whilst oil exports generate four times as much, at €218.5 billion a year. Officially, 50% of Russia's budget depends on the revenue generated by oil and gas; unofficially, the figure is much higher.