EMC Working Papers

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Financial Times are three of a kind. The three of them represent the major consumers of oil (particularly western consumers) and, therefore, have a tendency to exaggerate global oil reserves, production and discoveries and reduce global demand for oil in a blatant attempt to intimidate the oil price but the global oil market has seen through their ploys. 

For their data, BP Statistical Review relies on published figures from third party sources (which are usually bloated and highly political). Iran is a case in point. Since 2010 BP Statistical Review has been reporting that Iran has proven reserves of 157 billion barrels (bb) when two retired National Iranian Oil Company’s (NIOC) experts: The late Dr Ali Samsan Bakhtiari and Dr Ali Muhammed Saidi estimated Iran’s proven reserves at no more than 36 bb-37 bb.  The late Dr Bakhtiari who worked with NIOC for 36 years in a variety of senior positions until his retirement, once went on record saying that Iran is running out of oil and its proven oil reserves are closer to 36 bb. He made that reality crystal clear to Iran’s leaders a few years ago when he told former Iranian president Ahmadinejad that Iran’s proven oil reserves are closer to 36 bb instead of the then official figure of 137 bb.

Research Topics: Energy Markets’ Volatility